* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902018 07/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 39 39 37 35 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 37 39 39 37 35 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 21 20 20 13 17 21 21 25 24 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 0 0 -3 -4 1 1 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 357 343 348 352 357 353 326 320 318 309 286 285 284 SST (C) 27.8 28.4 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 28.2 28.2 27.6 26.8 27.7 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 149 151 148 146 141 146 145 139 131 141 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 75 75 77 78 81 82 79 76 70 68 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -24 -21 -28 -37 -37 -30 -35 -26 -36 -42 -28 200 MB DIV 113 80 91 95 54 17 36 6 -2 -5 -13 -14 -36 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -10 -11 -9 -5 -1 1 0 1 3 3 6 LAND (KM) 2047 2108 2174 2247 2323 2430 2505 2382 2220 2041 1849 1672 1483 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.0 126.2 127.3 128.4 130.4 132.1 133.6 135.0 136.5 138.2 139.8 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 8 8 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 29 32 34 35 13 11 10 10 12 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 123.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902018 INVEST 07/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.08 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.6% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 10.4% 6.4% 0.7% 0.2% 5.0% 5.7% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902018 INVEST 07/19/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX