* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 25 27 27 30 26 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -3 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 70 82 90 97 110 130 131 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 144 140 136 133 129 124 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 63 59 54 48 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -13 -17 -13 0 -3 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 4 -4 -7 -6 2 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 1 2 0 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 524 523 492 488 495 516 532 528 537 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.6 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.8 111.8 112.5 113.1 113.9 114.8 115.1 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 10 9 8 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -21. -27. -30. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -29. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 109.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.01 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##