* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 35 30 24 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 9 12 12 16 18 26 32 30 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 137 177 199 221 246 245 232 232 249 255 254 241 245 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 138 140 137 134 134 132 130 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 62 62 60 58 55 53 51 48 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -24 -20 -16 -14 4 9 17 21 22 25 42 200 MB DIV 26 17 26 14 -3 21 33 7 5 18 13 13 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1462 1491 1517 1538 1567 1631 1727 1821 1958 2131 2187 1942 1723 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.7 122.3 122.7 123.2 124.4 125.9 127.6 129.6 131.9 134.3 136.6 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 6 7 8 10 8 8 6 4 8 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 5. -1. -8. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 121.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.69 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 9.1% 7.7% 1.6% 0.7% 4.4% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 8.9% 6.5% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##