* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 50 54 56 56 56 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 50 54 56 56 56 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 44 44 44 43 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 8 9 12 12 16 11 9 2 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 3 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 353 16 350 341 340 319 310 308 301 311 246 100 106 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 164 163 159 157 153 146 146 144 144 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 77 77 75 71 63 59 57 59 63 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -16 -26 -29 -36 -27 -21 -11 -23 -39 -32 -34 -11 200 MB DIV 35 50 37 42 31 12 18 31 40 21 12 17 30 700-850 TADV 10 5 6 3 -2 3 1 5 0 0 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 511 508 513 519 535 606 726 706 813 991 1209 1436 1614 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.1 15.4 16.5 17.4 17.7 17.5 16.8 15.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.6 102.3 104.1 105.8 108.9 111.4 113.4 115.5 117.8 120.2 122.2 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 15 12 10 10 12 12 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 29 31 34 40 23 23 17 12 8 21 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 06 UTC ##