* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962017 07/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 55 64 70 73 73 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 55 64 70 73 73 73 73 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 50 57 63 66 68 70 71 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 54 59 46 46 42 25 10 16 333 334 315 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 150 148 150 149 145 147 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 71 70 71 71 71 70 69 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -15 -7 3 4 -1 11 15 17 11 5 1 0 200 MB DIV 16 10 7 16 13 9 43 60 52 44 50 45 59 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 924 980 1044 1109 1179 1297 1401 1555 1734 1900 2080 2274 2471 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 28 26 22 19 21 20 38 49 31 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 25. 34. 40. 43. 43. 43. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 109.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962017 INVEST 07/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 21.9% 16.2% 13.0% 0.0% 16.8% 15.7% 11.9% Logistic: 10.6% 35.1% 17.0% 14.6% 9.5% 21.2% 34.8% 47.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 23.5% 5.9% 1.8% 0.3% 4.7% 8.6% 2.9% Consensus: 7.6% 26.8% 13.0% 9.8% 3.3% 14.2% 19.7% 20.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962017 INVEST 07/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##