* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/03/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 46 51 51 50 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 46 51 51 50 49 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 12 9 9 8 3 3 7 8 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 -1 -6 -7 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 33 36 33 18 334 336 338 307 212 221 221 243 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.5 27.0 25.8 25.5 25.0 25.2 26.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 152 148 141 136 124 121 115 117 125 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 78 75 71 65 59 55 54 53 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 9 8 9 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -37 -36 -35 -31 -14 -5 13 23 39 52 45 52 200 MB DIV 27 28 45 47 42 27 31 42 24 32 31 27 19 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -5 -2 -1 1 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 901 898 889 907 963 973 1097 1275 1567 1841 2157 2171 1935 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.2 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.6 110.3 111.2 112.3 114.8 117.7 121.1 124.8 128.4 131.7 134.8 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 16 16 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 40 35 20 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -0. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 26. 26. 25. 24. 21. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 108.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.7% 5.5% 3.6% 1.7% 6.9% 6.9% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 1.8% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 13.8% 6.6% 1.3% 0.6% 7.4% 7.4% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##