* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 48 50 46 40 32 25 17 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 48 50 46 40 32 25 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 33 30 26 21 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 0 5 5 6 14 13 17 21 38 58 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 3 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 11 15 306 306 300 258 288 293 293 259 254 241 227 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.8 26.7 25.5 24.0 23.2 22.1 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 152 152 149 143 131 119 104 96 86 69 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 71 70 67 61 56 54 59 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 27 21 14 -6 -29 -39 -63 -62 -80 -88 -61 200 MB DIV 56 54 83 93 81 52 30 -14 -24 14 34 58 82 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -7 -5 -1 -3 7 6 11 18 26 8 LAND (KM) 1073 1086 1082 1107 1151 1232 1268 1316 1358 1409 1419 1187 781 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.6 16.7 18.1 19.6 21.2 23.4 26.5 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.5 114.4 115.5 116.7 118.9 120.9 122.8 124.9 126.9 128.3 128.4 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 19 23 21 10 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -6. -15. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 23. 25. 21. 15. 7. -0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 112.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 33.7% 22.4% 14.8% 8.2% 24.8% 18.0% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.2% Consensus: 1.9% 21.5% 13.9% 5.1% 2.8% 15.1% 12.1% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##