* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 10/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 54 58 58 55 49 41 33 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 54 58 58 55 49 41 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 38 41 42 41 37 31 24 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 7 3 6 3 14 6 12 15 34 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 -4 1 0 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 26 24 22 305 326 262 291 278 266 243 255 243 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.9 26.6 25.4 24.0 23.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 148 151 153 150 144 131 118 103 95 88 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 76 73 71 70 61 56 54 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 33 36 33 17 0 -18 -38 -50 -41 -23 -24 200 MB DIV 68 65 67 83 93 68 47 18 9 -2 27 20 42 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 0 0 7 10 12 23 53 LAND (KM) 1028 1048 1093 1112 1133 1151 1197 1231 1288 1350 1417 1400 1035 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.5 16.8 18.4 19.8 21.2 23.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.7 112.4 113.0 113.9 116.1 118.3 120.5 122.7 125.0 127.0 128.0 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 13 11 13 24 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 16 16 20 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 33. 33. 30. 24. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 111.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 22.3% 13.2% 7.0% 3.3% 21.6% 38.1% 37.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 7.5% 1.4% Consensus: 1.1% 17.8% 10.6% 2.5% 1.2% 14.2% 21.4% 12.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 10/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##