* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912017 08/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 47 53 57 58 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 47 53 57 58 57 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 28 30 34 37 39 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 16 16 18 12 15 17 20 19 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 -1 2 2 -1 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 26 24 26 32 35 26 27 56 65 78 83 92 113 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 150 155 160 159 153 144 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 11 8 8 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 74 73 73 75 73 69 65 61 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -7 -16 -14 -18 -2 0 4 5 6 15 18 200 MB DIV -3 7 12 25 44 61 53 41 46 9 0 -1 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 666 664 656 637 583 446 323 299 501 623 758 839 857 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.9 12.8 15.1 16.9 17.8 17.8 17.4 17.3 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.2 98.0 98.7 99.3 100.8 103.1 106.2 109.6 112.5 114.3 115.4 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 14 17 18 15 11 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 16 17 18 25 50 40 12 6 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 22. 28. 32. 33. 32. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 96.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 08/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.0% 8.3% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 5.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% 6.6% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 08/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##