* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 09/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 26 25 27 30 35 38 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 26 25 27 30 35 38 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 20 24 25 14 7 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 6 8 8 5 0 2 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 63 67 64 53 46 26 39 44 63 6 347 301 287 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 147 147 149 150 144 139 134 132 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 56 58 60 60 59 56 55 53 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 6 7 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 16 20 28 33 32 29 20 0 -22 -23 -29 -18 200 MB DIV 39 45 16 0 10 31 50 59 22 51 33 18 -13 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 7 8 1 -1 -4 -5 2 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1932 1916 1908 1909 1926 1934 1916 1882 1809 1734 1688 1715 1796 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.5 13.2 14.4 16.0 17.2 18.1 18.5 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 125.9 125.6 125.4 125.3 125.3 125.8 126.5 127.1 127.4 127.7 128.4 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 2 6 8 7 6 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 33 33 33 31 33 19 11 7 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -10. -9. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 126.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 09/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##