* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 07/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 43 45 44 43 38 34 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 43 45 44 43 38 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 24 22 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 2 1 3 1 5 7 8 8 11 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -4 0 -5 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 289 333 343 306 162 165 145 215 211 206 221 240 246 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.6 24.6 23.8 23.2 23.0 23.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 129 127 125 125 121 110 102 95 93 95 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 66 65 63 57 54 51 51 46 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 2 -2 -3 -2 -12 -21 -29 -22 -12 -7 -8 200 MB DIV 80 73 55 44 53 25 -2 -8 -5 -4 -8 0 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 1 0 1 4 1 3 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1309 1325 1329 1347 1370 1437 1539 1655 1815 1981 2011 1732 1431 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 11 13 14 13 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 17 14 13 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. 13. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 118.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.62 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 7.9% 6.3% 1.6% 0.7% 4.4% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 10.5% 7.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##