* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912016 06/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 38 41 42 41 39 34 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 38 41 42 41 39 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 26 25 23 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 1 1 3 2 3 10 11 13 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 -3 1 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 133 138 170 208 51 202 236 252 213 247 230 223 212 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 150 146 145 143 143 143 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 43 44 44 48 52 50 48 44 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 40 34 24 20 22 23 29 23 37 36 36 200 MB DIV 36 37 40 33 28 26 52 63 63 55 25 12 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 3 4 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1823 1872 1923 1979 2005 2052 2099 2127 2166 2220 2268 2307 2347 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.3 124.0 125.2 126.2 126.9 127.5 128.0 128.5 128.9 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 41 34 31 26 18 13 11 12 14 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 121.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.55 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.43 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.9% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 13.8% 15.9% 3.7% 1.6% 15.7% 10.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 14.7% 12.8% 1.3% 0.5% 5.3% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST 06/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##