* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 52 62 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 11 17 17 22 13 20 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 1 4 3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 126 124 101 83 76 68 80 80 88 67 43 49 54 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 159 161 161 161 163 163 166 164 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 80 79 80 79 77 75 79 82 83 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 17 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 48 56 64 70 72 79 68 68 66 65 97 200 MB DIV 77 93 111 119 146 170 164 180 167 192 199 200 226 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 375 385 412 443 476 561 600 635 666 745 752 578 235 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.4 6.6 6.7 9.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.7 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.8 91.9 92.6 92.9 92.7 91.7 89.8 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 5 5 2 2 5 7 12 18 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 9 9 12 19 25 27 35 38 20 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 12. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 46. 54. 58. 64. 67. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 88.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -5.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.6% 38.8% 36.9% 14.6% 8.8% 51.3% 56.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% Consensus: 5.2% 13.6% 12.6% 4.9% 3.0% 17.2% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##