* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 21 22 18 11 7 8 8 6 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 3 1 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 246 249 262 266 265 276 268 248 208 221 258 329 178 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 149 151 151 151 149 147 144 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 60 62 63 64 64 66 67 70 71 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 22 23 20 15 -3 -18 -35 -36 -37 -24 -8 200 MB DIV 52 55 55 40 14 29 35 95 68 68 49 29 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1244 1264 1284 1275 1250 1172 1109 1062 1081 1184 1352 1511 1621 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.5 15.2 14.6 14.1 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.9 116.1 116.1 116.0 115.8 115.7 116.0 116.7 117.8 119.4 121.2 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 2 3 4 4 3 4 7 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 17 18 20 24 29 30 31 20 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -9. -8. -2. 1. 4. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 115.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##