* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 05/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 15 16 22 20 20 27 33 34 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 3 3 5 4 4 5 7 12 14 SHEAR DIR 251 253 248 248 253 255 259 233 232 246 277 263 237 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 148 141 136 133 132 130 128 123 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 62 61 60 59 56 50 50 48 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -74 -87 -92 -93 -88 -75 -55 -37 -23 -18 -4 -14 200 MB DIV 115 80 67 61 39 40 33 26 23 33 23 21 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1541 1534 1531 1540 1568 1633 1712 1772 1834 1846 1815 1732 1571 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.1 15.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.5 125.2 125.4 125.2 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 27 20 15 6 5 4 7 14 16 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 116.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.8% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##