* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 39 40 40 39 37 38 41 41 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 39 40 40 39 37 38 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 36 34 32 31 29 29 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 33 32 33 30 25 26 31 24 9 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 10 11 2 -6 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 59 65 53 53 49 52 51 43 30 33 28 252 248 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 165 163 160 150 141 140 141 145 140 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 5 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 78 73 72 65 61 58 59 56 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 104 107 102 87 53 78 82 65 56 31 35 27 200 MB DIV 76 62 55 53 40 23 16 28 21 13 -6 0 0 700-850 TADV -3 0 -7 -5 -11 -10 0 1 -7 -5 -4 1 0 LAND (KM) 85 102 145 193 241 320 453 542 588 678 737 742 677 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.5 99.7 100.9 102.1 105.0 107.8 109.2 109.8 111.2 113.8 114.6 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 13 14 10 5 5 10 8 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 20 30 35 29 19 13 10 4 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -28. -24. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 97.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##