* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 47 48 46 44 43 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 47 48 46 44 43 44 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 45 44 42 40 37 36 35 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 30 29 30 27 27 29 35 29 29 14 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 8 8 6 14 12 10 0 1 6 2 7 SHEAR DIR 57 61 65 52 54 53 39 45 39 48 46 46 39 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 165 164 160 157 152 149 147 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 79 76 75 73 65 64 58 61 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 109 108 116 116 65 66 87 83 62 29 10 7 200 MB DIV 81 102 76 82 64 36 42 12 28 47 -6 0 2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -5 -3 -9 -13 -12 -6 -9 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 100 116 135 182 235 355 411 501 586 706 865 852 758 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.2 98.2 99.4 100.6 103.1 105.1 106.6 108.1 109.8 111.8 112.5 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 11 8 7 8 9 7 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 20 34 42 31 24 17 12 11 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -29. -29. -26. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 96.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 12 UTC ##