* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 54 52 50 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 54 52 50 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 48 49 49 49 49 48 46 44 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 36 30 26 27 22 20 31 29 27 18 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 7 5 12 18 14 3 -1 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 57 58 62 66 59 48 28 19 28 31 30 13 51 SST (C) 30.3 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 163 162 164 164 161 158 156 153 150 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 81 80 74 75 68 66 67 65 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 114 106 102 105 102 49 78 84 76 48 34 43 200 MB DIV 83 98 100 105 91 85 61 35 44 51 17 48 10 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 -5 -9 -12 -21 -21 -21 -22 -27 -17 LAND (KM) 172 157 175 199 250 337 411 463 517 611 752 845 881 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 12 11 9 7 7 7 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 16 26 40 39 30 26 19 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -17. -21. -24. -24. -23. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 95.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 06 UTC ## ##