* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 31 33 31 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -4 -5 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 85 93 98 110 129 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 134 131 127 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 59 55 53 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -14 -12 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -4 -18 -13 -13 -11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 458 421 400 389 387 387 350 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.3 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 9 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -17. -25. -32. -36. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -21. -28. -33. -38. -41. -42. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 111.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##