* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 08/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 12 13 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 303 301 288 271 247 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.1 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 82 79 77 76 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 44 41 38 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -49 -22 -11 -13 2 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -4 -7 0 -4 8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1383 1340 1305 1290 1280 1292 1272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.1 26.8 27.5 28.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.1 129.7 130.3 130.9 132.0 133.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -7. -6. -3. -0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -32. -34. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 128.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 08/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 319.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 08/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##