* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 45 40 33 29 25 21 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 45 40 33 29 25 21 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 46 42 34 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 10 6 8 7 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 5 355 8 7 310 280 253 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.6 21.9 21.5 21.3 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 105 98 94 89 81 76 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 53 49 43 38 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 -4 -16 -24 -30 -8 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 7 -8 2 18 6 14 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -6 -3 0 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1465 1430 1408 1401 1406 1347 1332 1353 1384 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.7 25.6 27.1 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.3 129.7 131.2 132.2 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 8 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -18. -17. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -40. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.2 125.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 392.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.8% 12.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##