* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 48 43 38 32 27 25 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 48 43 38 32 27 25 25 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 42 36 30 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 10 4 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 3 1 -3 0 -1 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 52 51 62 64 41 9 10 347 311 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.0 23.5 22.5 21.7 21.5 21.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 132 128 114 99 88 79 75 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 66 65 60 59 57 49 43 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 17 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 64 68 66 39 9 0 7 17 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 8 -6 1 5 2 -5 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -7 -2 -2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1715 1697 1680 1635 1592 1465 1379 1389 1320 1317 1353 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.9 26.0 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.0 125.0 125.1 125.1 125.6 126.7 128.2 129.8 131.2 132.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 9 12 14 13 11 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -12. -18. -23. -25. -25. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.8% 9.0% 6.4% 5.7% 9.2% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.5% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##