* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 52 53 54 50 49 41 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 52 53 54 50 49 41 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 50 50 47 44 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 19 15 16 12 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 3 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 54 54 51 47 64 69 75 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.8 25.4 23.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 133 131 118 102 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 63 64 66 65 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 19 16 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 87 92 70 66 61 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 23 39 44 42 22 -5 13 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1755 1759 1763 1740 1717 1615 1475 1373 1349 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.1 16.3 18.4 20.7 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.4 125.4 125.2 125.1 124.9 125.2 126.1 127.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 2 4 9 11 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. -1. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 125.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.06 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 12.2% 8.3% 5.7% 5.2% 10.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.4% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 3.4% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##