* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 49 50 45 42 42 41 42 42 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 49 50 45 42 42 41 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 42 42 41 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 16 14 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 59 66 63 58 62 67 38 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.1 24.7 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 132 133 133 124 110 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 64 64 66 65 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 78 87 96 96 71 69 35 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 14 20 37 23 16 11 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1699 1704 1708 1720 1732 1673 1507 1404 1410 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.6 17.6 19.4 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 124.8 124.9 125.0 125.1 125.0 124.7 125.3 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 7 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 7 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 0. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.8% 5.4% 5.3% 0.7% 6.9% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 2.0% 1.9% 0.3% 2.3% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##