* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 48 51 54 52 50 44 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 48 51 54 52 50 44 41 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 44 45 46 46 44 39 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 17 17 14 14 18 14 11 4 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 92 67 59 61 69 67 65 81 75 43 198 192 208 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.4 24.8 23.5 22.9 22.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 132 132 133 134 127 112 99 93 86 88 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 61 61 66 68 68 65 57 47 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 84 92 93 88 99 85 80 67 64 78 87 73 200 MB DIV 17 20 35 49 48 57 16 36 7 -8 6 -3 -8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1645 1673 1701 1712 1723 1707 1608 1497 1388 1388 1538 1612 1752 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.8 15.7 17.3 19.4 21.4 23.4 24.6 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.6 124.9 125.0 125.0 124.7 124.3 124.3 125.1 126.8 129.6 132.4 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 3 6 10 12 14 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 8 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 7. 5. -1. -4. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 124.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 262.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.0% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 9.4% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.6% 2.9% 1.9% 0.1% 3.2% 3.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##