* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 47 47 47 48 50 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 47 47 47 48 50 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 43 42 41 39 38 38 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 13 11 5 12 15 12 8 6 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 350 338 332 345 1 171 176 173 140 144 82 105 55 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 142 141 142 140 138 139 140 142 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 65 61 63 61 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -45 -41 -48 -50 -36 -30 -3 11 33 41 56 71 200 MB DIV 15 17 15 -4 -18 -5 -15 0 2 41 48 72 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1108 1144 1181 1205 1231 1290 1356 1436 1542 1654 1768 1839 1855 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.9 117.4 117.7 118.1 118.9 119.9 121.0 122.3 123.5 124.7 125.5 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 24 22 21 18 17 14 9 10 14 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 116.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.6% 10.8% 8.8% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 8.6% Logistic: 0.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 4.0% 3.2% 0.1% 4.8% 0.2% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##