* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 48 55 56 60 63 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 48 55 56 60 63 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 23 25 27 30 33 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 14 15 17 10 9 7 11 16 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 360 353 336 338 337 356 20 18 121 150 140 133 98 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 138 138 140 144 145 144 144 145 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 69 72 72 73 73 71 68 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 17 16 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -23 -31 -37 -37 -48 -67 -57 -40 -31 -20 -16 200 MB DIV 4 3 11 21 26 62 52 6 15 17 28 7 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 1 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 868 929 974 1003 1052 1175 1286 1319 1307 1288 1322 1484 1729 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.3 13.7 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.9 13.7 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.9 113.0 114.0 115.0 116.5 117.4 117.5 117.3 117.3 118.2 120.2 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 3 0 1 2 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 24 13 12 17 20 16 15 15 16 16 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 23. 30. 31. 35. 38. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 110.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 4.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 2.5% 4.0% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##