* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 51 51 53 52 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 49 51 51 53 52 54 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 41 41 42 41 41 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 16 14 15 16 17 7 8 6 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 -5 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 27 19 11 11 26 7 350 360 336 328 162 191 174 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 145 141 140 140 141 142 143 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 75 75 76 73 75 74 74 73 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -15 17 31 29 24 17 -30 -55 -58 -79 -69 -57 -30 200 MB DIV 51 57 32 51 71 45 30 17 22 23 -11 -33 -27 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -8 -10 -8 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 830 877 919 955 1017 1073 1086 1123 1151 1202 1250 1305 1370 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.9 110.1 111.1 112.2 113.7 115.1 116.1 116.7 117.2 117.4 117.7 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 10 8 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 34 39 46 33 14 19 22 25 23 19 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 21. 23. 22. 24. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 107.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 24.2% 17.1% 13.6% 0.0% 16.9% 14.8% 10.3% Logistic: 17.5% 43.9% 21.5% 17.4% 11.7% 19.4% 17.6% 24.3% Bayesian: 2.0% 37.7% 8.9% 3.4% 0.7% 3.7% 8.0% 1.2% Consensus: 10.9% 35.3% 15.8% 11.4% 4.1% 13.3% 13.5% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##