* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 44 48 52 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 42 44 48 52 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 30 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 11 12 14 13 17 19 8 3 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 2 3 3 2 3 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 42 29 5 357 356 360 350 7 30 68 139 169 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 153 146 136 142 144 146 149 149 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 76 78 76 74 73 69 68 68 70 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -30 -29 -23 -9 7 10 12 -28 -55 -68 -50 -22 200 MB DIV 50 49 67 58 29 54 42 48 45 19 -4 -32 -49 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 -4 -6 -7 -8 -8 -5 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 741 732 715 712 735 849 955 1087 1204 1286 1336 1299 1211 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.6 15.0 14.8 14.4 13.7 12.7 12.4 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 107.1 108.4 111.2 113.6 115.8 117.1 117.4 116.7 115.4 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 14 14 14 11 8 5 5 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 37 30 36 21 10 22 22 16 11 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 19. 23. 27. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 103.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 11.8% 4.6% 2.4% 1.2% 4.2% 1.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 10.0% 5.9% 0.8% 0.4% 6.0% 5.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##