* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 56 61 65 71 77 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 49 56 61 65 71 77 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 36 38 40 42 46 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 11 10 10 11 12 13 4 3 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 1 2 4 1 0 0 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 47 44 48 44 21 359 358 349 2 61 77 254 204 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 153 153 152 142 138 143 145 143 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 77 78 77 77 73 74 72 75 70 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 14 16 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -24 -23 -22 -14 -11 -33 -29 -44 -42 -13 -12 200 MB DIV 67 50 37 58 51 37 54 41 61 47 39 2 2 700-850 TADV -3 0 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 733 732 729 710 705 767 924 1023 1150 1210 1122 929 845 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.5 14.5 13.8 13.1 13.5 15.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.7 105.8 106.8 109.4 112.0 114.0 115.2 115.0 113.9 113.7 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 12 12 14 11 8 5 4 7 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 37 37 31 32 20 13 17 16 14 11 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 46. 52. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 102.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 18.3% 6.5% 2.9% 1.5% 18.1% 27.4% 38.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.3% 1.5% Consensus: 0.5% 14.4% 7.3% 1.0% 0.5% 11.7% 15.1% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##