* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 43 43 38 34 30 12 4 13 10 9 5 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 5 8 0 4 2 5 11 9 SHEAR DIR 283 281 284 283 286 292 157 142 174 184 220 255 253 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 113 112 112 114 115 116 121 126 130 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 34 32 32 35 36 34 34 33 34 34 35 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 10 11 16 24 27 29 23 17 15 2 -9 200 MB DIV 5 -5 -12 -27 -36 -21 -21 -19 -32 -30 -16 2 2 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 1 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1052 961 920 901 906 939 987 1028 1070 1069 1038 978 880 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.5 15.8 14.8 13.8 13.1 12.6 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.8 146.2 146.4 146.4 146.2 146.0 145.9 146.0 146.7 147.7 149.1 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 2 1 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 10 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -11. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -24. -27. -28. -27. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 144.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 36.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##