* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 42 40 37 32 26 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 42 40 37 32 26 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 38 35 31 27 23 20 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 10 14 20 19 29 22 3 14 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -6 -4 5 2 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 151 155 181 245 275 299 301 298 312 30 126 147 149 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 125 121 117 116 116 118 119 118 120 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 45 44 41 37 33 29 27 25 25 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -12 -11 -6 -8 4 14 20 28 29 32 24 200 MB DIV 10 0 2 8 13 -15 -2 -17 -34 -42 -38 -24 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2213 2128 2044 1960 1876 1723 1558 1405 1253 1133 1018 933 862 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.2 16.7 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.3 136.0 136.7 137.4 138.7 140.2 141.7 143.3 144.7 146.1 147.3 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -14. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 134.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 302.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.5% 11.6% 8.7% 8.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##