* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 36 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 36 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 29 26 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 11 10 17 23 29 35 21 7 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -6 -3 -1 -2 -4 -10 -5 8 2 0 SHEAR DIR 281 235 177 175 210 271 292 303 305 301 256 182 189 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 128 126 119 116 116 116 116 117 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 48 47 44 41 37 32 25 24 22 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -4 1 -3 4 3 8 22 23 36 34 29 200 MB DIV 18 16 3 1 7 3 -14 3 -18 -36 -36 -34 -28 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2363 2312 2221 2138 2056 1879 1719 1558 1392 1231 1070 951 858 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.2 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 132.8 133.6 134.4 135.1 135.8 137.3 138.7 140.2 141.8 143.4 145.1 146.5 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -12. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -14. -21. -29. -35. -37. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 132.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 289.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.5% 11.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##