* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 41 38 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 41 38 34 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 39 34 30 26 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 8 13 17 23 30 31 28 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 -3 -1 -3 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 282 293 312 292 289 215 241 282 299 305 302 303 285 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 139 139 134 127 124 120 119 117 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 56 53 50 47 44 41 37 32 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 16 15 3 7 7 6 0 -5 1 -4 16 200 MB DIV 1 -22 -8 10 20 27 1 11 -11 -13 -25 -46 -29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2044 2139 2237 2318 2378 2183 2022 1876 1747 1612 1469 1305 1134 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.7 130.9 132.0 133.1 134.9 136.3 137.6 138.7 139.9 141.2 142.8 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 1 2 3 6 4 4 3 1 1 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -30. -37. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 128.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 -0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 274.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.9% 12.6% 10.2% 0.0% 13.4% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.1% 4.7% 3.6% 0.1% 4.7% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##