* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 43 44 43 40 38 33 27 24 21 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 43 44 43 40 38 33 27 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 39 36 34 32 31 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 8 5 3 3 7 11 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 0 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 248 246 230 233 273 283 298 214 243 240 261 254 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 138 136 132 129 127 124 120 112 109 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 57 56 55 52 48 45 39 36 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 40 40 41 36 36 22 21 18 26 4 9 200 MB DIV 0 16 33 51 47 16 47 31 0 8 -8 -4 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -6 0 2 4 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1507 1583 1663 1747 1829 2012 2185 2301 2201 2041 1834 1702 1616 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.7 124.8 125.9 126.9 129.4 131.6 133.1 134.3 135.7 137.5 138.7 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 9 7 7 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 14 12 6 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 282.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 16.7% 12.8% 9.8% 9.5% 15.3% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.6% 4.7% 3.5% 3.3% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##