* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 40 39 38 38 36 40 35 33 30 27 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 40 39 38 38 36 40 35 33 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 39 36 33 31 31 31 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 11 10 4 2 2 2 2 6 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 3 -1 2 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 221 240 243 240 247 274 239 332 98 267 256 273 265 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 139 139 135 130 127 125 122 116 112 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 60 57 56 53 50 44 41 36 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 18 18 17 18 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 41 44 44 44 42 32 31 32 38 32 30 200 MB DIV -5 2 34 53 56 36 41 20 -1 -7 0 -17 8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 1 3 4 1 1 LAND (KM) 1438 1508 1582 1662 1745 1900 2058 2186 2272 2191 2030 1862 1687 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.4 123.5 124.6 125.7 127.9 130.0 131.7 133.0 134.3 135.7 137.2 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 9 11 15 8 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -5. -10. -12. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 259.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.9% 11.1% 8.9% 0.0% 14.3% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.0% 0.0% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##