* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 53 52 52 48 47 45 41 37 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 53 52 52 48 47 45 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 49 48 45 42 39 38 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 6 8 9 11 10 9 4 2 3 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 0 1 0 -4 -3 0 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 89 199 246 217 208 233 231 277 328 341 299 320 249 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 140 138 138 136 131 128 126 123 120 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 69 68 64 58 54 49 45 43 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 20 19 20 19 19 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 36 42 48 43 58 55 63 58 64 60 60 200 MB DIV 25 24 29 16 12 21 32 31 0 24 19 -12 5 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 -3 -5 -5 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1251 1302 1350 1398 1454 1599 1784 1950 2114 2247 2217 2072 1934 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.8 119.8 120.9 122.0 124.1 126.5 128.8 130.9 132.7 134.1 135.4 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 21 15 7 10 14 3 0 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 117.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 23.5% 18.6% 15.3% 14.0% 18.4% 16.6% 8.9% Logistic: 8.4% 19.5% 9.2% 7.4% 4.1% 4.9% 3.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 15.7% 9.5% 7.7% 6.1% 7.8% 6.6% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##