* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 55 60 65 67 67 63 60 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 55 60 65 67 67 63 60 56 54 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 54 60 62 60 57 54 52 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 7 5 10 10 9 4 3 5 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -4 0 1 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 88 99 119 169 195 211 199 222 338 356 19 347 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 146 145 139 138 138 134 130 127 125 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 75 72 69 66 60 56 53 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 18 20 21 20 20 19 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 39 45 38 54 71 70 77 71 68 56 52 200 MB DIV 50 31 30 27 36 31 34 53 24 22 -8 16 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 4 2 1 0 -4 -1 2 6 LAND (KM) 1115 1145 1182 1240 1305 1421 1552 1731 1922 2089 2220 2230 2030 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.0 116.9 118.0 119.1 121.3 123.4 125.7 128.2 130.5 132.3 134.0 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 23 22 20 12 9 15 6 6 3 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 20. 25. 27. 27. 23. 20. 16. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 115.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 5.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 31.2% 22.0% 17.8% 17.0% 22.3% 18.9% 10.9% Logistic: 36.7% 75.3% 51.9% 44.0% 34.9% 42.1% 16.4% 9.1% Bayesian: 3.5% 50.8% 21.9% 11.9% 3.0% 6.6% 2.1% 0.1% Consensus: 19.1% 52.4% 32.0% 24.6% 18.3% 23.6% 12.5% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##