* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 53 57 55 51 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 53 57 55 51 46 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 43 44 44 44 41 36 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 3 3 9 16 16 15 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 317 303 285 310 299 252 216 200 208 217 220 223 229 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 147 142 133 136 135 130 125 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 70 72 70 72 71 66 61 59 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -3 1 -2 0 11 25 35 32 30 39 49 200 MB DIV 7 13 7 21 6 2 42 49 13 8 9 6 -4 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 1 0 2 6 7 14 1 7 3 LAND (KM) 583 628 683 750 822 864 958 1082 1220 1409 1610 1818 2040 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.6 17.2 16.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.7 109.6 110.6 111.6 113.6 115.9 118.4 121.0 123.5 125.7 128.2 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 20 18 16 11 9 11 2 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 22. 20. 16. 11. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.7% 16.1% 13.1% 12.1% 17.2% 16.3% 9.7% Logistic: 5.3% 14.0% 6.4% 5.4% 3.3% 6.1% 7.3% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 5.3% 0.6% Consensus: 5.4% 15.1% 8.2% 6.3% 5.2% 8.3% 9.6% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##