* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072017 07/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 45 46 46 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 45 46 46 43 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 10 10 5 1 9 10 20 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 321 326 339 325 320 322 309 138 240 205 210 228 264 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 152 147 135 135 136 133 132 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 71 70 69 70 69 69 67 63 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -32 -27 -16 -7 5 6 7 15 22 21 22 8 200 MB DIV 20 22 22 21 33 11 3 3 46 14 5 18 19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 3 2 0 3 3 6 4 9 9 8 LAND (KM) 539 564 595 616 642 765 845 913 1066 1208 1415 1597 1715 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.1 107.9 108.7 110.7 112.9 115.2 117.8 120.3 122.9 125.0 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 28 26 23 17 9 5 11 3 1 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 16. 16. 13. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.4% 10.2% 7.9% 0.0% 12.1% 12.3% 9.9% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 3.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% Consensus: 1.1% 5.5% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0% 4.6% 5.4% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##