* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 17 16 14 15 18 26 27 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 245 247 251 263 257 252 236 233 238 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 22.1 21.5 21.1 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 82 76 72 68 66 64 64 62 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 43 41 38 32 29 25 25 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 38 30 17 -6 -27 -43 -57 -66 -68 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -12 -8 -27 -24 -11 -12 0 -11 3 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 4 1 3 4 4 8 6 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 820 827 850 882 948 994 997 1000 1022 1041 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.8 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.6 123.2 124.3 125.4 126.4 127.2 127.8 128.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -7. -14. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -31. -37. -43. -49. -57. -62. -64. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 120.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 292.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.9% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##