* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 29 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 16 16 14 14 13 18 20 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 250 252 250 257 266 251 246 233 226 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.6 21.2 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 87 82 76 72 67 66 64 61 59 57 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 45 43 40 34 33 29 29 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 52 43 37 27 3 -16 -31 -38 -59 -51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -13 -8 -8 -25 -5 -4 0 -4 2 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 3 -2 4 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 837 824 819 822 831 870 924 926 889 887 898 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.3 26.4 27.3 28.0 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 120.8 121.3 121.8 122.3 123.3 124.3 125.0 125.6 126.2 126.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -28. -32. -37. -42. -47. -53. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.0 120.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 324.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.50 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.1% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##