* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 82 83 83 74 66 55 46 37 28 21 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 82 83 83 74 66 55 46 37 28 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 80 81 75 63 50 40 33 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 6 8 2 1 3 0 3 4 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -3 -1 5 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 206 74 56 153 120 110 189 24 21 345 308 338 349 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.7 24.9 23.1 22.2 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.1 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 136 131 112 93 83 78 70 63 61 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 65 64 63 56 56 51 50 46 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 25 26 23 22 20 18 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 27 21 31 38 36 46 40 31 15 1 -8 200 MB DIV 52 78 75 38 17 13 0 -33 -24 -5 1 -13 -9 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 -5 -5 -2 0 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1048 999 957 919 892 848 817 836 823 813 834 897 997 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 18.6 20.3 21.5 22.4 23.3 24.3 25.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.8 117.1 118.6 119.7 120.6 121.4 122.4 123.5 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 7 6 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 15 14 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 18. 18. 9. 1. -10. -19. -28. -37. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 113.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 282.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 2.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.5% 44.2% 35.9% 29.8% 21.1% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.2% 40.4% 30.6% 29.6% 23.8% 11.9% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 15.2% 24.8% 10.2% 5.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.3% 36.5% 25.5% 21.6% 15.8% 12.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##