* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 79 84 85 81 73 65 55 46 38 29 V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 79 84 85 81 73 65 55 46 38 29 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 81 84 82 74 61 49 41 34 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 7 7 8 5 1 2 5 4 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -5 -4 -1 2 2 1 0 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 253 172 115 92 129 134 135 73 227 250 283 275 292 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 25.8 24.4 23.1 22.3 21.4 20.7 20.2 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 143 139 136 121 106 93 84 74 67 62 61 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 64 60 58 54 51 47 45 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 26 25 23 22 19 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 28 24 29 47 37 38 49 44 31 17 0 200 MB DIV 49 38 43 46 54 27 12 -19 -27 -22 -7 -18 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 -7 -5 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1094 1059 1027 976 934 899 872 858 854 827 861 919 1006 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.7 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.7 118.0 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.3 123.5 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 16 18 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 5. 1. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 25. 21. 13. 5. -5. -14. -22. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.5 113.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 10.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 11.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 6.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 256.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.5% 49.4% 44.4% 40.1% 25.0% 26.4% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 27.0% 25.6% 19.7% 16.6% 10.1% 12.9% 3.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 8.8% 27.1% 11.8% 6.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.1% 34.0% 25.3% 21.1% 12.2% 13.5% 6.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##