* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 57 65 70 70 66 62 54 46 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 57 65 70 70 66 62 54 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 51 57 60 59 52 45 38 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 4 1 1 8 10 1 3 4 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -8 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 276 336 277 266 89 169 148 347 326 273 225 267 265 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 25.5 24.0 22.9 22.2 21.1 20.2 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 144 140 135 118 102 91 83 72 62 59 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 67 65 62 61 55 55 49 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 21 23 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 26 27 25 18 31 25 23 42 39 36 14 200 MB DIV 105 90 61 44 54 65 42 6 -12 -15 -14 -22 -10 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1047 1048 1057 1012 972 908 867 825 836 853 828 838 863 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 16.5 18.1 19.4 20.5 21.8 23.2 24.4 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.6 114.2 115.4 116.6 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.5 122.5 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 26 20 17 17 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 30. 30. 26. 22. 14. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.98 9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 36.8% 29.1% 22.1% 19.7% 25.9% 20.8% 9.3% Logistic: 25.3% 58.9% 48.4% 38.7% 26.8% 25.5% 9.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 25.9% 5.8% 1.4% 0.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.8% 40.5% 27.8% 20.7% 15.8% 18.0% 10.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##