* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 69 78 80 76 70 64 56 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 78 80 73 61 50 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 1 2 2 4 4 3 2 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 1 -1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 316 348 33 164 207 155 163 187 175 131 240 269 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.7 22.0 21.2 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 152 149 141 135 118 101 88 80 72 60 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 69 65 63 58 57 53 53 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 21 23 23 22 20 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 40 32 34 34 32 36 20 29 37 30 20 200 MB DIV 81 99 99 73 66 56 42 29 10 3 -12 -19 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1063 1072 1086 1091 1093 1011 941 894 845 826 815 766 742 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 34 26 21 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 45. 41. 35. 29. 21. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.6 110.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 10.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.31 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 114.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 45.8% 37.0% 29.1% 21.2% 40.4% 39.9% 11.7% Logistic: 18.5% 53.7% 42.6% 35.3% 20.5% 71.2% 65.7% 15.3% Bayesian: 13.7% 62.2% 27.3% 13.4% 4.3% 11.0% 8.2% 1.1% Consensus: 17.9% 53.9% 35.6% 25.9% 15.3% 40.8% 37.9% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##