* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 28 34 46 54 62 67 67 64 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 28 34 46 54 62 67 67 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 31 37 43 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 8 7 4 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 286 273 231 176 172 234 45 42 60 128 173 193 178 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.0 26.4 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 155 156 154 150 153 155 146 130 106 101 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 78 77 76 73 72 72 69 63 54 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 13 15 19 24 25 5 -2 -12 -5 22 32 200 MB DIV 78 69 55 41 43 40 64 69 62 39 19 -5 6 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 809 829 872 942 1032 1215 1327 1307 1117 924 709 745 924 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.3 10.7 10.2 10.6 12.4 14.9 17.6 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.2 107.4 108.6 109.8 111.9 112.9 113.1 112.5 112.4 113.8 116.6 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 8 3 6 12 14 15 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 36 44 43 57 51 48 38 16 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 26. 35. 42. 47. 47. 44. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 105.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 17.6% 9.6% 5.5% 1.9% 30.4% 26.3% 23.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 6.2% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 10.2% 8.8% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##