* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 38 46 55 62 64 64 63 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 38 46 55 62 64 64 63 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 25 27 30 35 40 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 2 1 4 1 2 3 7 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -6 -5 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 356 186 303 283 281 245 305 353 128 192 200 208 183 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 27.9 26.7 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 154 153 152 153 153 144 131 118 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 78 78 77 75 74 71 68 62 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 4 12 13 18 27 18 15 -3 -7 8 20 200 MB DIV 81 72 63 56 40 45 65 74 63 35 40 8 7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 834 858 883 935 991 1113 1200 1214 1118 971 821 857 939 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 11.2 12.7 14.7 16.9 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.4 106.5 107.5 108.5 110.4 111.8 112.5 112.8 113.2 114.6 116.6 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 8 5 5 10 12 12 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 31 34 39 42 57 55 31 15 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 27. 35. 42. 44. 44. 43. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 104.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 17.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 37.3% 22.9% 15.0% 6.9% 48.0% 71.4% 69.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 6.9% Consensus: 1.7% 13.4% 7.8% 5.1% 2.3% 16.1% 24.1% 25.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##