* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 48 44 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 48 44 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 48 43 36 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 6 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 2 1 0 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 294 313 223 202 193 185 170 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.1 22.5 22.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 102 98 97 96 93 86 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 65 67 61 59 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 20 21 16 -11 -20 -25 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 6 8 -3 -12 -10 -11 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 412 377 367 393 439 519 617 735 856 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.4 113.3 115.1 116.9 118.4 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -22. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -31. -39. -47. -52. -54. -54. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.2 109.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 241.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##