* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 84 83 79 70 61 50 40 31 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 80 84 84 83 79 70 61 50 40 31 23 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 82 78 72 61 52 43 36 30 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 12 10 5 2 3 2 5 4 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 56 61 80 150 159 222 168 172 145 119 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.6 23.0 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 117 112 108 104 100 97 91 89 90 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 71 69 64 63 60 56 48 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 33 30 30 26 25 10 -9 -9 23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 32 17 -14 -23 3 -15 -20 -8 -36 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 3 3 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 328 384 445 435 435 507 596 651 747 870 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.8 108.7 109.6 110.4 111.9 113.6 115.1 116.5 117.9 119.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. -1. -10. -19. -30. -40. -49. -57. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.6 106.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 217.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 8.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##